How the Shale Revolution Led to Operation Epic Fury

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CENTER FOR STATISTICAL MODELING AND SCIENTIFIC ANALYSIS POLICY DEPARTMENT How the Shale Revolution Led to Operation Epic Fury Kevin Dayaratna, Vice President Ali Holcomb, National Security Fellow APRIL 2, 2026

TOPLINE: The Shale Revolution unleashed American energy production and strengthened America’s energy security and national security. By expanding domestic oil and gas output, the United States became less vulnerable to foreign supply disruptions and external shocks, even though 20% of the world’s oil transits the Strait of Hormuz. This stronger domestic energy position created the conditions for President Trump to launch Operation Epic Fury.

BACKGROUND: For years, the U.S. was highly dependent on foreign oil from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the Persian Gulf. Then came the shale revolution, driven by the combination of two technologies: Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing.

AMERICAN ENERGY DOMINANCE BY THE NUMBERS: • 2009: U.S. becomes the world’s largest producer of natural gas. • 2018: U.S. becomes the world’s largest producer of crude oil. • 2025: U.S. produced 13.6 million barrels of oil per day.

• In 2009, we produced just 5.4 million barrels of oil per day. • 2025: U.S. produces 108 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day.

• In 2009, we produced just 56.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day.

PERSPECTIVE: U.S. share of global oil production climbed from 10% in 2000 to 19% in 2024, as shown in Figure 3.

COMPARE: Iran has remained stagnant at 5% for the last two decades.

U.S. Dry Natural Gas Production (Billion Cubic Feet per Day)

U.S. Crude Oil Production

(Million Barrels per Day)

U.S. Oil and Gas Production

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2026

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WORLD LEADER IN ENERGY: The U.S. share of global gas production also increased from 22% in 2000 to the world’s leader at 25% in 2024, as shown in Figure 3. • As the U.S. relies more on domestic energy resources, American homes and

businesses can count on greater energy security and worry less that foreign conflicts will disrupt supply.

TODAY: The Iran war underscores the importance of unleashing American energy and what happens when countries don’t have energy alternatives. • When conflict disrupts Gulf shipping lanes and threatens major energy facilities,

countries with strong domestic production are far less vulnerable than countries dependent on unstable foreign supply. • This is especially important right now as Iran has stalled shipments through the

Strait of Hormuz, driving up oil and gas prices, and damaged major energy infrastructure across the Gulf.

BOTTOMLINE: The Shale Revolution did more than expand U.S. oil and natural gas production—it created the opportunity for President Trump to strike Iran, knowing America would be shielded from the worst effects of shipping lane closures. By making energy here at home, America is more resilient to foreign conflict, less vulnerable to coercion, and better positioned to withstand energy pricing shocks from crises such as the current war involving Iran.

Global Oil Production Shares by Country, 2000 vs 2024 United States Brazil Canada China Iran Iraq Kuwait Russia Saudi Arabia UAE Other Nations

Source: Our World in Data, Oil production

Global Gas Production Shares by Country, 2000 vs 2024 United States Russia Iran China Canada Qatar Australia Saudi Arabia Norway Algeria Other Nations

Source: Our World in Data, Gas production

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