Policy Memo

AAF Jobs Report May 2026

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Published

June 10, 2026

Author

Gadai Bulgac

Topline

May payroll employment grew by 172,000 jobs while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 percent.

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Background

May marks the third consecutive month of overall job growth. March was revised up 29,000 jobs and April was revised up 64,000 jobs. This job growth directly coincides with the Supreme Court ruling President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional in late February.

Figure 1

Jobs Up

Jobs Down

Government vs Private Sector Job Growth

Full-Time Down & Part-Time Up

What Else You Need to Know About May’s Job Numbers

Jobs by Sector: Monthly, May 2026

Figure 2

Growth in Subsidized Sectors

Since 2023, almost all job growth has occurred in heavily subsidized sectors or government: e.g. private health care, social assistance, and (to a lesser extent) private education. These sectors are all captured in the BLS’ “health and education” supersector, which only comprises about one-fifth of total private employment.

Unsubsidized private employment has experienced minimal growth and even declined from early 2024 until February of this year. The trend reverses in March 2026 following SCOTUS striking down President Trump’s IEPPA tariffs. This phenomenon is depicted in Figure 3.

Figure 3

Unemployment Rates and Employment-to-Population

Figure 4

Bottom Line

May’s jobs report shows 3 straight months of growth after rocky results in the last few years. This positive trend is likely due to SCOTUS ruling against the Liberation Day tariffs.

However, there are still some worrying trends: fewer people are working full-time, real hourly wages declined, and the employment-to-population ratio is still concerningly low.